Motivated Reasoning

Society is a large concept that is often hard to grasp and relate to, but it’s really just a group of people, and we all are members of many groups: the billing department at work, an extended family, a sports club, the south side of town, Jimmy’s birthday party, etc. And within each of those groups decisions always need to be made: what software should we use, which restaurant are we going to, where should we hold the family reunion this year. In these environments we all know how to spot motivated reasoning: someone makes an argument for a choice that clearly is in their self-interest, but they claim it’s actually the best for the group. But we’re immediately suspicious and look deeper – they tend to leave out facts that don’t support their cause, they over exaggerate the benefits of their choice, and don’t seem to realize other people might want something different than they do. Sure, uncle Bob suggests we hold the reunion in Kansas City because it’s the middle of the country so equal distance from everyone, but he happens to live there, most of the family is on the East Coast, and who really wants to go to Kansas City? Even if someone’s choice seems altruistic, we question their motivations until we’re satisfied their argument is not based on ulterior motives. Cousin Sue suggests Boston even though she lives in San Diego. But being the clever people that we are, we ask a few questions and find out that Sue’s company wants to send her to Boston for a conference so they’ll pay for her trip. Maybe Boston would work but maybe there’s a more neutral location that really serves the group as a whole better. It’s not that everyone is a selfish bastard, but it’s human nature to seek your own self-interest, and from there it’s only too easy to find some bit of logic to hang an argument on where what’s best for you is also best for all. The problem isn’t that motivated reasoning is completely unsound – it has enough logic to make it seem plausible – but it isn’t complete or accurate and rarely arrives at the best answer.

In these situations the thing to do is try to separate your reasoning from your personal gain. Imagine you were not a part of the group – what would a disinterested party recommend as the fair and equitable answer? Having the reunion on the East Coast is best for the greatest number, but perpetually disadvantages the West Coast minority, so maybe every third year it should move around the country, even to Kansas City once in a while. When we work in groups we need to reach consensus and we all should want the best solution for the group as a whole, but differences of opinion are inevitable, and while the strength of the argument should win it’s more often that the strength of the arguer is the deciding factor. We all challenge self-motivated reasoning in others and we should look for it in ourselves. We need to be more reasonable about our reasoning and willing to advocate for what’s right and fair even if it isn’t in our own self-interest. We need to be better than human nature.

Draw your analogies where you wish.  

The Arrogance of the Present

Through my study of physics I learned many fundamental concepts not just about how the universe works but how to figure out correct and consistent answers to important questions in life. Perhaps one of the most important lessons came when a professor, perhaps seeing in me an ego that needed to be checked, cautioned me to always be mindful of the arrogance of the present. He explained that throughout history every generation has looked upon the past as if it were separate from their time, as if the current state of knowledge so far surpassed what came before that the world was a different place – a better place – where all the mistakes had been corrected and perfection sat merely a hand’s-breadth away. When Copernicus showed that the earth revolved around the sun, all who accepted it shook their head at the ignorance and stupidity of those who had believed the opposite. When Newton came up with the Universal Law of Gravity, a new generation felt even more superior, certain they had achieved the final and complete answer to the question of the Heavens. Einstein came along and proved them nothing better than scryers casting stones for divination and the modern physicists sat back to enjoy the end of their field as all answers to every question must surely be forthcoming. But even Einstein didn’t see the complexity and accuracy of Quantum Chromo Dynamics which followed, only to be improved or replaced with Super Symmetry and String Theory. Every leap that has taken us forward has led no closer to the end of the matter and when we look back we see that it has all been a continuum of improvement. The present might be the latest rung, the highest point yet achieved, but it is no different in composition or quality than every other step below and will undoubtedly be surpassed before our very eyes. We are not removed from those who held such silly thoughts but are merely the future’s past, and any other thought is not only arrogant but harmful to the cause of advancement.

This same theme, the separation of the present from the past and overestimation of our current enlightenment, is equally prevalent, and perhaps more significant, in social realms as in scientific ones. While it is common to look to the past for lessons to learn or mistakes to avoid, the standard warning is to know history so not to repeat it. The truth is we are still living in that history – it hasn’t ended; we’re in the middle of most of those mistakes. The issue of race relations is a perfect example. We can all see now our country was in error when it laid its foundation on slavery, but the arrogance of the present says that was a past problem, not a current dilemma. We are different now. Better. Racism might still exist among the backwards folks who haven’t learned any better, but some people still think the sun revolves around the earth so what are you going to do. The real people, the ones who count, have moved beyond race.

But isn’t that what the thinkers thought after the Emancipation Proclamation? I’m sure they patted themselves on the back and rushed to put the shameful Civil War behind them. Jim Crow was a step forward and basically the end of the matter. It’s only too easy to see now it wasn’t so. And after the Civil Rights Act was passed I have no doubt the halls of Congress, the towers of academia, and the livings rooms of American all smiled warmly at their achievement, content in their superiority over their forebears. Perhaps justifiably, but the problem still lingered.

At every instance since, the message of the day has been that racism has ended for all practical purposes. In the 70’s black culture rode a wave of popularity while housing policies, hiring practices, and wage differentials maintained a de facto segregation and the Southern Strategy won the White House. In the 80’s our government felt assured we had made it past the worst and no longer needed affirmative action or corrective measures since racial animus no longer drove society, yet a new Southern Strategy and Welfare Queens brought more old white men into power. Surely by the 90’s we had turned a corner? But then came Rodney King and police scandals from Los Angeles to Chicago to New York. When the century turned, the country was once again filled with the surety that we had escaped the past – we even elected a black President! Then the birtherism started. He was accused of being an African Muslim. And now we’ve elected an old white man as President who ran on a platform of bigotry and racism (whose political aspirations started as a vocal proponent of the birther conspiracy). Yet everyone still wants to believe we are different, we are special, we are not the inheritors of the past’s indiscretions but a different group altogether who longer see race at all. In spite of all the evidence to the contrary, the wealth disparities, the criminal justice disparities, the statistical evidence and social science consensus proving racial divisions and resentment still exist, we cling to the idea that now is better than then. We are arrogant and we are wrong. Only through humility and acceptance of our own imperfections do we have the opportunity to rise above what we were and become better. Still not perfect, but a step above. We can only get there by climbing one rung at a time instead of pretending that we’ve completed a giant leap of faith to get where we are now. We are the future’s past – think carefully of how you want that future to remember you.